Environmental Securities and Risk

I read an interesting critique of the current U.S. economy…the general premise was that a significant amount of American finance has replaced investments in real goods and services with investments in financial derivatives (investments in ‘repackaged money’).

This is a cautionary tale…the more abstract our economy becomes, the more risk our society assumes.

I’ve also read the pros and cons of speculation as ‘indicators’ of where economic sectors are going…and the pros and cons of options and derivative investments to hedge against risk.

As I thought, a light went on about environmental investments. With prudent assessment and valuation, environmental securities have very knowable risk profiles, and the ability to accumulate valuable assets becomes easier than in other securities markets.

I note than there is significant emphasis in the carbon market on environmental registries, and they are important. They need to not only use great care in processing these environmental securities, but go further than merely registering ‘qualified’ credits, etc. In order to reduce risk, we need to connect the security knowably (quantifying both environmental return and risk) to the environmental processes and outcomes that underlie the security.

Is adequate work being done in that area? If it is, environmental markets will surpass other markets because they are the most stable investments.

Globalization

I’ve watched with interest the various conversations, policies, and politics of globalization over the past few years. It is a vast concept…and suffers from great generalizations in the media and the political arena.

I’ve been a bit of a skeptic about much of the trade liberalization…at the same time I’ve read many well-respected economists riding the ‘globalization bandwagon.’ My concerns have been both systematic (how can we really manage the economic systems that arise?) as well as ethical (one person’s ‘good’ can be very different from another person’s ‘good’). I also see globalization often driven by the commercial desire to expand the sale of products and services I consider of little value (KFC, for example).

Today I read an article that discusses ‘globalization withdrawal’ by some of the economist that were the biggest cheerleaders:

http://www.business24-7.ae/articles/2008/7/pages/07132008_0e2fdaac2526432cad20a95916ed4bc4.aspx

It led me to research the author, Dani Rodrik, and find he does a very interesting blog:

http://rodrik.typepad.com/dani_rodriks_weblog/

I’ve always considered my skepticism was merely a lack of knowledge (‘too stupid to see the value’) and a bias toward local thinking. I find it hard to conceive of ‘global’…so how can we plan economies based upon concepts that are infinitely complex?

Mathematics and Policy

I noticed that John Phipps had posted today about the poor state of American math and science education. At the end of his post, he drew a parallel to ‘why mathematical evidence seems to carry very little weight in policy debates’.

I’m well aware of the problems with using scientific and mathematical evidence in policy debates, but never related it to a lack of education. My own experience is that there is a huge ‘barrier to entry’ in using science and math in policy discussions. Unless you are ‘preaching to the choir’… most of the decision-makers will have very little comparative experience with the evidence. No matter how relevant and accurate, it will have no meaning!

Owning Structure

Jim Hightower, who calls himself America’s Number 1 Populist, has recently written an editorial called ‘Speculators and our food’. From Mr. Hightower:

Speculators have long messed with farmers by artificially manipulating prices on everything from corn to soybeans. But now they’re pooling up billions of dollars from global investors to go after the farms themselves, as well as the fertilizer plants, grain elevators, ships and barges and other basic tools for producing, shipping, and storing our food supply. As one hedge fund operator says: “It’s going on big time. There is considerable interest in what we call ‘owning structure.'”

My Illinois farming friend John Phipps several years ago started getting calls from Wall Street folks wanting advice on buying farmland.

I also know that many of the financial products that Mr. Hightower sees as speculative also allow farmers to manage risk… but, like oil options, those markets have speculators. Unfortunately, his concern for stability in food -both production and prices – is completely valid.

We need to make certain our market structures for food (and other ecoproducts) are sincere. If it looks and walks like a duck, it should be a duck.

Home Valuation Code of Conduct

The current mortgage problems have hatched the Home Valuation Code of Conduct (sounds like the Boy Scouts….and maybe that is not a bad model).

http://www.freddiemac.com/singlefamily/docs/030308_valuationcodeofconduct.pdf

There has been substantial rumbling in the appraisal community because it restricts who might order appraisals for mortgage lending…only the lender….real estate agents or mortgage brokers can’t order the appraisal. It also changes the protocol of the appraisal process and the transferability of appraisals.

Appraisers are afraid it will upset existing relationships (which from my reading it would) and therefore cost them substantial monies (which is probably a reasonable assumption). It would make much greater use of AMCs (appraisal management companies) and therefore consolidate how lenders get appraisals.

International Financial Reporting Standards

I reviewed this article and found it interesting for a number of reasons:

1)The key underlying theme for IFRS is that it is principles based rather than rules based like U.S. GAAP. An advantage of a principles based system is that a principle can be more generally applied and leaves the specific application to management. A disadvantage of a rules-based system is the proliferation of standards and interpretations as each specific situation is addressed….this is an important thing to consider when developing reporting standards for ecosystem services. Rules-based standards in complex systems are going to be very ‘complicated’ and perhaps literally ‘miss the forest for the trees’.

2) It points out the importance of being able to communicate about complex systems in a global marketplace…and the difficulty of creating practices.

3) The idea of ‘standards’ in measuring complex environmental systems creates lots of contradictions. Perhaps ‘ethical principles’ is more effective.
4) The length of time to evolve these standards, even with the reasonably long history of corporate accounting, is significant.
For the entire article:

Collapse…and innovation

I heard yesterday that Hank Paulson, US Treasurer, was suggesting it might be necessary for the Fegeral government to “rescue” Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (I put quotes on the rescue because I did not read his remarks…only heard a report…and you can bet about $5 Trillion they were very carefully worded). Today I notice the stock prices have collapsed.

I’ve been thinking how this change in real estate finance is also an opportunity to reorganize the incentives in real estate finance. It also has me wondering how strong is the relationship between ecosystem services provided by real estate and real estate value…kind of an advancement of the concept of ‘location, location, location’. Are the neighborhoods that are most distressed by foreclosure also poor providers of valuable ecosytem services?

It also has me thinking about how innovation works….since we’re talking real estate, here is an article on innovation in homebuilding:

http://www.treehugger.com/files/2008/07/wrapping-up-with-the-cellophane-house.php

And here is a New York Times Article that I think really thoughtfully deals with how innovation works in American society:

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/08/technology/08stream.html?_r=1&ref=business&oref=slogin

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Give me that old time religion…and lots of big machines

After discussions over the past few days concerning stormwater utilities and both point and non-point source pollution, I was doing some research on financing stormwater system improvements. I wondered how the Narragansett Bay Commission collects fees from residential and commercial customers…so I looked at their 2007 Annual Report.

I would call it the ‘big machines solve problems’ approach to pollution. The Narragansett Bay Commission has build a 300 foot deep, three mile long, sixty-five million gallon “Main Spine Tunnel” to hold stormwater during heavy rain events so that it can be treated before going to the Bay.

I think it cost around $500 M and obviously used many big machines….sort of the Robert Moses approach.

My apologies, I generally try to not be cynical about technology (I’m an engineer for God’s sake), but this one has for several years sent me over the edge.

For the Annual Report:

http://www.narrabay.com/Documents/PDFs/NBC_AR07.pdf